I）多余的话
写小报童，我是闹着玩儿的。
但我闹着玩经常比很多人的「认真」还要认真。
回头看最初的计划，光是专题我就准备开三个：
- 讲创业和管理的：创业维艰系列；
- 讲个人成长的：江湖女儿系列；
- 讲思考框架的：思维框架系列；
这前面两个交付了，最后一个没太大动静。因为我觉得对没办法做深度交流的各位讲这些东西，可能帮助不大：思考框架往往好理解但难执行。没有上下文，无法充分结合自己的感受去体会和思考，是很难有改变的。
但不知不觉，「我在看什么」却有这么多篇了。所以接下来准备把这部分内容更规律地输出一下。
II）几句话总结
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对生活质量起决定性作用的是两方面：你的决策和你的运气。
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把决策视为赌注，明白错误的决策可能因为运气带来正确的结果，正确的决策也可能因为运气带来错误的结果，有助于客观区分决策质量和运气，从而带来决策质量的持续提高。
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学会在不确定性中进行学习，避免常见的决策陷阱，并学会控制情绪。
不夸张的说，书里介绍的这套想法对我来说其实就是思维范式的转换。我看待小到一个迭代里研发资源的分配，一个产品上市策略的制定，大到整个生活的计划安排，都有了挺多改变。并且这种思考方式也减少了我花在毫无意义的反思和自省上的时间。
III）Link & Notes
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“We make better decisions, and we feel better about those decisions, once we get our past-, present-, and future-selves to hang out together. This not only allows us to adjust how optimistic we are, it allows us to adjust our goals accordingly and to actively put plans in place to reduce the likelihood of bad outcomes and increase the likelihood of good ones. We are less likely to be surprised by a bad outcome and can better prepare contingency plans.”
Life is Poker, Not Chess.
“Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable.” Red flag: saying “I should have known that would happen.”
Working backwards to craft tight relationships between our outcomes and our decisions is susceptible to numerous cognitive traps (confirmation bias, assuming causation, etc.) Beware!
“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m not sure.’”
Incorporate uncertainty into how you talk about things. Learn to acknowledge how confident you are with any given fact. (“I’m 40% sure that ….” Doing this a) makes us more credible; and b) invites others to share what they know so we can “act like scientists together” (working to advance knowledge rather than confirm our beliefs).
Pitfalls of reality: a) beliefs & bets don’t improve naturally through experience; b) more information doesn’t naturally lead to better decisions; and c) outcomes don’t typically have unambiguous causes (especially with long-term outcomes, e.g. a low-fat, high-sugar diet leading to weight gain).
A productive truthseeking group has at least three people: “two to disagree and one to referee.”
Relentless truthseeking goes against social norms; don’t expect everyone in your life to engage. “It takes effort to acknowledge and explore our mistakes without feeling bad about ourselves, to forgo credit for a great result, and to realize, with an open mind, that not all our beliefs are true.” Build in breaks to replenish willpower.
“We make better decisions, and we feel better about those decisions, once we get our past-, present-, and future-selves to hang out together. This not only allows us to adjust how optimistic we are, it allows us to adjust our goals accordingly and to actively put plans in place to reduce the likelihood of bad outcomes and increase the likelihood of good ones. We are less likely to be surprised by a bad outcome and can better prepare contingency plans.”
另外，这本书和 Maria Konnikova 的《The Biggest Bluff》，都是职业扑克牌选手写的，都是讲怎么面向不确定性做决策的。Annie Duke 这本书胜在更有故事性，以及她本人更有话题：心理学博士肄业去参加职业比赛，获得几百万美金的奖金…如果你有空的话，可以两本都看。